Changing One's Mind, Part 2

To improve our beliefs, we must necessarily change our beliefs.

For someone who wants to better themselves -- grow, strengthen, become more, excel -- then the task is to learn how to change one's mind. It is a sad sort of hopelessness that is satisfied with the way one already thinks and believes.

Principle #1: Being convinced that a belief is true is worthless if you cannot be convinced that it is false.
Principle #2: The measure of the worth of a belief is not in what it predicts but in what it prohibits.

If I believe that I am the fastest runner in the world, I can become convinced of this by timing myself running a one hundred meter dash. I ready myself in the starting blocks, wait for the starting shot, and run to the finish line. I then look at the timer, read the time, and compare it to the current world record. If the timer reads "9.57," then I may celebrate having the fastest human body in the world.

But this is only the case on the following condition: that if I look at the timer and it reads something greater than "9.57," I cannot celebrate having the fastest human body in the world. Imagine that my "compare the time to the current world record" algorithm is screwed up, so that no matter what digits are displayed on the timer, my mind concludes, "that is faster than the current world record, so I am the fastest human in the world." In this case, my belief is not sensitive to reality -- there is nothing about reality that stipulates the belief. Although it pretends to be a belief about the way things are, there is no feature of reality to which it is actually related.

In fact, there is no way evidence could ever justify this belief, either. If the timer does say "9.57," you cannot point to that as evidence for believing yourself the fastest human, because you would still believe it whether the timer said "9.57," "0.957," or "95.7." A belief has to be sensitive to evidence in order for the evidence to help justify it. That's the first principle: if there is no way to think otherwise than that you are the fastest human in the world -- no pace at which you could run a race, no time that could appear on the timer -- it is worthless to think that you are.

The second principle expresses a similar idea. If I believe in the guilt of a woman accused witchcraft, the key question is not what behaviors my belief would predict. If she acts fearful, that confirms she is a witch, for fearful behavior is to be expected of someone who is guilty. If she acts confident and unafraid, well, she is obviously a witch, for witches are known to be proud and arrogant. Unfortunately, this is what we tend to do. When presented with some new information, we ask, "is it possible to make it compatible with my belief?" If the answer is "yes," then I take it to demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the my belief.

Instead, the power of a belief rests in what it predicts will not happen. If the woman is a witch, what would you expect not to see? What does the belief she is a witch prohibit? If the answer is "nothing," then your belief is again not a belief about reality -- it does not say, "reality is a certain way, namely, this way"; rather, says nothing more than, "reality is any way." It is a belief without content.